Israel says the first stage of its
以色列不顾国际社会的批评，表示
offensive into Gaza city has begun
已经开始对加沙城发动第一阶段的进攻
despite international criticism. How
。
long will it last and where will Gazins
这一切会持续多久？加津又将
go? We'll discuss that on this episode
去往何方？ 我们将在
of the BBC's daily news podcast
BBC 每日新闻播
newscast.
客节目中讨论这个问题。
Well, please welcome back to Newscast
那么，欢迎简·科尔宾 (Jane Corbin) 回来收看新闻节目，她是一位
Jane Corbin, panorama filmmaker
extraordinaire who spent loads of time
杰出的全景电影制片人，曾
in the Middle East. Hello again, Jane.
在中东地区度过大量时间。 你好，简。
>> Hello, Adam. Thank you so much for doing
你好，亚当。 非常感谢您做
our old newscast about the Oslo piece
有关奥斯陆协议的旧新闻广播
accords. People loved it and it was amaz
。 人们喜欢它，它令人惊叹，
and it's such good it was such good
它是如此的好，
training for me hearing all of that for
对我来说，听到这些对于
covering the news now because it does
现在报道新闻来说是一个很好的训练，因为它的
all echo still very loudly, doesn't it?
回声仍然非常响亮，不是吗？
>> Well, it sort of all fits together in in
嗯，
not a very happy way actually given
考虑到
where we're at now in the Middle East.
我们目前在中东的处境，这一切实际上都以一种不太愉快的方式结合在一起。
But yeah, it was a absolute pleasure to
但是，是的，做这件事绝对是一种乐趣
do it and to look back with lease over
，回顾
those times
那些时光，
>> and it's still available on BBC Sounds.
它仍然可以在 BBC Sounds 上收听。
We're also joined by Joe Flotto who is
我们还邀请了乔·弗洛托 (Joe Flotto)，他
actually the bureau chief for the BBC in
实际上是英国广播公司 (BBC)
the Middle East. So very busy man. Hello
中东分社社长。 真是太忙了。 你好，
Joe.
乔。
>> Hey, how are you?
嘿，你怎么样？
>> Yeah, great great to speak to you and
是的，很高兴与您交谈，也很
great to speak to you actually on
高兴在新闻广播中与您交谈，
newscast as opposed to listening to you
而不是
on a team's call in the office.
在办公室听您进行团队电话会议。
>> Well, that's true.
嗯，确实如此。
>> Um Jane, before we dive into the news,
嗯，简，在我们深入讨论新闻之前，
let's do a bit of geography first.
我们先了解一下地理知识。
Everyone today is talking about Gaza
今天每个人都在谈论加沙
City. Where is Gaza City and how does it
城。 加沙城在哪里？它
fit into Gaza, the territory? Well, Gaza
与加沙地区有何关系？ 加沙
City is in the north and as the name
城位于北部，
suggests, it is or was the major city in
顾名思义，它是或曾经是
the Gaza Strip. And don't forget that
加沙地带的主要城市。 别忘了，
the Gaza Strip is a small piece of land.
加沙地带只是一小块土地。
It's only a few kilometers wide and
它的宽度只有几公里，
about 30 to 40 long. So, we're talking
长度大约有30到40公里。 所以，我们谈论的是
about a very small area. Anyway, Gaza
一个非常小的区域。 无论如何，加沙
City was the main population center in
城是北部的主要人口中心
the north. Now after n after the 7th of
。 现在，自
October when the war started many people
10 月 7 日战争开始后，许多人
moved and were pushed south but there
迁移并被赶往南方，但
have been various sort of peace deals
along the way deals to free hostages and
一路上达成了各种和平协议，释放人质，
many moved back to Gaza city. So there
许多人返回加沙市。
are now a lot of people who've been up
现在有很多人在
and down the Gaza Strip a lot of
加沙地带来回走动，很多
civilians who are now back in Gaza City
平民现在都回到了加沙城，
and obviously this is the area now that
显然这个地区是
is the focus of of what's happening now
目前以色列新举措的焦点，以色列准备
with the new Israeli move to conquer the
whole of Gaza beginning with Gaza City.
从加沙城开始征服整个加沙地区。
Joe, just tell us what's happening
乔，请告诉我们
militarily then at the moment.
目前军事上的情况。
>> Yeah, so we've had all this week
是的，本周我们
actually increasing military activity on
在加沙城郊区的军事活动实际上有所增加
the outskirts of Gaza City. You've had
artillery fire uh in the areas of Zetun.
泽顿地区遭到炮火袭击。
You've had Israeli tanks moving into an
以色列坦克开进了
area of Gaza called Sabra, which is sort
加沙地带萨布拉地区，该地区位于
of south of of the city center, and
市中心以南，
that's also pushed a lot of people out.
这也迫使很多人逃离。
It's also killed quite a lot of people
它也杀死了很多人
out. Uh and this is we're told that the
。 嗯，我们被告知，这是对
kind of preliminary stages of of what's
going to be a big uh invasion and
occupation of Gaza City. The Israeli
加沙城进行大规模入侵和占领的初步阶段。 以色列
military and government have said what
军方和政府表示，
they intend to do is evacuate the city,
他们打算撤离该城市，
tell all the civilians to leave, and
让所有平民离开，
then they're going to go in and fight
然后他们将进入该城市与
Hamas uh until they're defeated. Uh
哈马斯作战，直到他们被击败。 嗯，
that's easier said than done, of course.
当然，说起来容易做起来难。
And Jane, just talking about the Israeli
简，刚才我谈论的是以色列的
grand strategy here, how does what's
大战略，
happening today fit into what's
今天发生的事情与
potentially going to happen and how does
可能发生的事情有什么关系，以及
that fit into the whole thing?
与整个事情有什么关系？
>> Well, don't forget it's well, it's not
好吧，别忘了，
much less than two years now since
从
October 7th, 2023 and we've had this war
2023 年 10 月 7 日到现在已经两年多了，我们在加沙地带发动了这场战争，目的是
going on in uh in Gaza to destroy Hamas,
摧毁哈马斯，
which is the stated aim of the
这是政府的既定目标
government. Obviously, it hasn't
。 显然，它还没有
destroyed Hamas yet because Hamas is
摧毁哈马斯，因为哈马斯
still holding Israeli hostages. uh
仍然劫持了以色列人质。 呃，
they're believed to be 20 still alive.
据信还有 20 人还活着。
So the government had tried to have a or
因此，政府曾试图
negotiate with Hamas the varying
与哈马斯就
opinions as to how much Benjamin
本雅明
Netanyahu wanted to do a deal but
内塔尼亚胡希望达成协议的程度进行谈判，但
effectively that that negotiation has
实际上谈判
been stuck since March. So for the last
自 3 月份以来一直陷入僵局。 所以过去
5 months not much has happened. Now,
5 个月里没有发生太多事情。
ironically, Hamas has come back to the
讽刺的是，哈马斯
negotiating table in the last couple of
在过去几天里又回到了谈判桌前，达成的
days with a a deal which is essentially
协议与
the same one as we had in March, which
我们 3 月份达成的协议基本相同，即分
is to release hostages in two phases, 10
两个阶段释放人质，
at a time, of the living hostages and
每次释放 10 名人质，包括活着的人质和
some of the bodies uh over for in return
一些尸体，以换取
for a 60-day ceasefire. But in the
60 天的停火。 但
meantime, the Israeli government has put
与此同时，以色列政府
forward its plan, which is to it only
提出了自己的计划，那就是只
wants to have the hostages released in
希望一次性释放人质
one single tranch. And it believes that
。 它认为，
the only way to do that is to destroy
实现这一目标的唯一方法就是摧毁
Hamas. And that means occupying the
哈马斯。 这意味着占领
whole of Gaza. The whole previously they
整个加沙。 之前他们
were occupying about 75% but that means
占领了大约 75% 的土地，但这意味着要
taking the whole of the strip and as Joe
占领整个地带，正如乔
said moving civilians out that are still
所说，要把仍然
in the north which is essentially where
在北部的平民迁走，这基本上是
they're focusing first of all and
他们首先关注的地方，
presumably um you know going in really
大概你知道，他们在该地区部署了
really hard with all these battalions
这么多营，会非常非常努力地进攻
that they've got in the area.
>> And Joe, what do we know about what
乔，我们对
might happen next militarily? And also
接下来可能出现的军事事件了解多少？
is that just a a threat as opposed to
这仅仅是一种威胁，而不是
something that's actually going to
真正会
happen?
发生的事情吗？
Yeah, it could be both actually, Adam.
是的，实际上两者都有可能，亚当。
So, we we've had all week uh and
所以，我们整个星期都在等待，
actually for for quite some time some
事实上，在相当长的一段时间里，
very deliberate signaling from the
Israeli government and military that
以色列政府和军方都在非常谨慎地发出信号，表明
they're preparing to go in. So, we had
他们正准备进军。因此，
earlier this week the drafting of
本周早些时候，我们又征召了
another 50 60,000 reserveists and
50,000 名预备役军人，
that'll take a few weeks to play out. Uh
这将需要几周的时间来完成。
we've had today the military calling up
今天，军方已召集
uh hospitals and medical facilities in
the north of the Gaza Strip saying it's
加沙地带北部的医院和医疗机构，告知他们该
time to leave. Um, but if it happens,
撤离了。 嗯，但如果发生这种情况，
then they're going to have about five
那么他们将派出大约五个
divisions uh of soldiers and tanks
师的士兵和坦克
moving steadily into Gaza City. And uh,
稳步进入加沙城。 而且，
as as Jane's pointed out, there's a lot
正如简指出的那样，那里有很多
of people there who've been displaced
人以前曾流离失所
before. So, we think it's about 800,000
。 因此，我们认为大约有 80 万
to a million people who've drifted back
到 100 万人
into Gaza City. And a lot of them are
返回加沙城。 他们中的很多人
telling us they just don't want to
告诉我们他们不想
leave. And some of them saying they
离开。 有些人说他们
can't leave. They don't have the energy.
不能离开。 他们没有精力。
They don't have the calories. And they
它们没有卡路里。 他们
don't have the wherewithal to get to the
没有足够的资金去往
the south of Gaz. It's a little bit
加兹南部。 它
bigger than than Jane said. It's about
比简说的要大一点。
30 40 kilometers to get south to where
向南行驶大约 30 到 40 公里才能到达
the Israeli military want them to go,
以色列军方希望他们去的地方，
but there's no money. There's very
但是没有钱。 目前
little fuel and people don't have
燃料非常少，人们
literally enough calories in them at the
体内的热量根本不足以支撑他们
moment to make that kind of journey on
徒步完成这样的旅程
foot. So, everyone is worried about the
。 因此，每个人都担心
the the human suffering that an
offensive will entail. The Israeli
进攻将给人类带来苦难。 以色列
government is still maintaining the
政府和军方仍坚持这一
position and the military that this is
立场，这就是
where they're heading. This is what they
他们的前进方向。
want to do in order to get rid of Hamas.
为了摆脱哈马斯，他们想这么做。
>> Oh, Joe, I don't want to trivialize the
哦，乔，我不想把
situation, but it's as simple as like
情况简单化，但这很简单，就像
people just being too knackered from
人们因为
lack of food to be able to contemplate
缺乏食物而筋疲力尽，无法
moving again. It's as sort of as simple
再考虑搬家一样。 事情就是这么简单，
and as grim as that.
却又如此残酷。
>> Well, it's not just knackered. It's a
嗯，它不仅仅是累坏了。 这是
calorie deficit. the the the situation
热量不足。
although it's improved marginally in the
尽管
last couple of weeks after sort of
最近几周
international outrage has pushed Israel
国际社会的愤怒迫使以色列
to allow more aid in you're still
允许更多的援助，情况略有改善，但
getting people very very hungry and and
人们仍然非常饥饿，
malnutrition is a sort of slow burn it
营养不良是一种慢性疾病，需要
it catches up with people over a period
一段时间才能痊愈，
of time and so they might be getting a
所以他们现在可能会得到
bit more food now but it's going to take
更多的食物，但
a while till people are strong enough uh
in some circumstances to make that
在某些情况下，人们还需要一段时间才能恢复到足够的体力来完成这一
journey. You've also got a different
旅程。
circumstance to to last year where
现在的情况也与去年不同，那时
people still had reserves of of cash,
人们仍然储备有现金、
savings, something to pay uh for black
储蓄，可以用来购买
market food or to pay people to take
黑市食品，或者付钱让人用
them on trucks to the south and and
卡车把他们运到南方，但
that's just not an option for for lots
of people now because their reserves are
现在对很多人来说，这已经不是一种选择了，因为他们的储备已经
gone. The cash is gone. And so people
用完了。 现金没了。 因此人们
are very worried and I mean we've heard
非常担心，我的意思是，我们听到
from from people who who have even said
有人说，
actually I I don't care anymore. Like I
实际上我不再关心了。 就像我
can't move anymore and I'd rather die
不能再动了，我宁愿死在
here than just suffer the the
这里，也不愿忍受
humiliation and the exhaustion of moving
搬到
to another part of Gaza City. And where
加沙城另一个地方的屈辱和疲惫。 那
am I supposed to go? And and it's the
我应该去哪里呢？
middle of summer now. It is about 34
现在正值盛夏。 大约34
degrees.
度。
>> Very very humid. It's quite a journey
非常非常潮湿。
even at the best of times. And this is
即使在最好的情况下，这也是一段相当漫长的旅程。 而现在
not the best of times.
并不是最好的时代。
>> And Jane, is there any sign that the
简，有迹象表明
Israelis are taking that sort of stuff
以色列人正在考虑这些事情吗
into account? Because they basically
？ 因为他们基本上
just say to people in Gaza, the places
只是对加沙人民说，
that they want to hit, get out.
他们想要袭击的地方，就撤走。
>> Yeah. And I think BBC Verifi has been
是的。 我认为 BBC Verifi
doing some really interesting work in
在过去几天里做了一些非常有趣的工作，
the last couple of days showing how the
展示了
Israeli military, they believe to be IDF
以色列军队如何
because of the sheer number of trucks
and the disposition are already clearing
out the displaced people's camps that
清理流离失所者营地
have sprung up, as Joe said, around Gaza
，正如乔所说，这些营地在加沙城周围涌现，
City because people have come back.
因为人们已经回来了。
They're being dismantled. We don't know
它们正在被拆除。 我们不知道
what's happened to those people. And
那些人发生了什么事。
sure, I I certainly know from the people
确实，我从与
I speak to in Gaza that people are
加沙人交谈中得知，人们
literally just dropping on the street.
确实在街上躺着。
Um I heard last week from um a woman
嗯，我上周从那里的一位女士
there that she helped a woman into the
那里听说，她帮助一位
hospital who couldn't just couldn't go
无法
any further and had no money and
继续前行、没有钱也
couldn't feed her children. And how are
无法养活孩子的妇女进了医院。
people like that going to move south
这些人要怎么向南迁移呢？
with no there's no fuel, there's no
没有燃料，没有
trucks, everybody's donkeys is basically
卡车，每个人的驴子都快用完了，
it with perhaps half a dozen children
大概还有六个孩子
and maybe the bread winner in the family
，也许家里的经济支柱
has already been killed because many men
已经被杀了，因为很多男人在
have obviously when going to fetch aid
去领取援助物资时显然
have become the victims of the violence
成为了援助中心周围发生的暴力事件的受害者
that's happened around around some of
those aid centers. So I think it's as
。 所以我认为就像
Joe said, people are almost like they've
乔所说的那样，人们几乎已经
lost the will to do whatever they need
失去了采取任何必要行动来
to do next to get out of danger in and
摆脱
around Gaza City.
加沙城及其周边地区危险的意愿。
>> And Joe, you mentioned the fact that
乔，你提到
Israel is calling up reserveists. And we
以色列正在征召预备役军人。 今天下午早些时候我们在
were talking about this on Five Live
Five Live 上讨论了这个问题
earlier on this afternoon. Um it's
。 嗯，
interesting that so much of the Israeli
有趣的是，以色列的许多
military operation requires these
军事行动都需要这些
part-time soldiers. And also I just
兼职士兵。 而且我只是
wonder the Israeli society from which
想知道这些兼职士兵来自的以色列社会
these part-time soldiers come like how
how are people feeling about this next
对下一阶段有何感受
phase?
？
>> Yes. So look on the on the reserveist
是的。 因此，请关注预备役
front. I mean that's how the Israeli
方面的情况。 我的意思是这就是以色列
military works. It has a is a has a
军队的运作方式。 它拥有一支
large standing army. Uh you've got a
庞大的常备军。 呃，你有一支
conscript army. So a section of society
征兵军。 因此，社会上一部分人
is forced to do three years for men uh
被迫服刑，男性服刑三年，
two years for women. uh and that
女性服刑两年。 嗯，这让
surprised the the the the bulk of of the
manpower for the Israeli army. But for
以色列军队的大部分人力感到惊讶。 但是对于
anything
任何
big or important, they draft the
重大事件，他们都会征召
reserveist in and for combat soldiers
预备役军人，对于任何年龄的作战士兵，
anywhere up I think I think it's 40
我认为
years old, you can be drafted in. And in
年龄在 40 岁之前，你都可以被征召入伍。在
this war that is in Israel's longest war
这场战争中，这是以色列目前持续时间最长的战争
now, uh some people have been drafted up
，有些人已经被征召了
three or four times. And this latest
三四次。 而最新的
draft won't go down well because it it's
草案不会顺利通过，因为它对
tough uh for families, it's tough for
家庭来说很艰难，对个人来说也很艰难，
individuals
and uh if you've got your own business
比如说，如果你有自己的生意
for instance, you do get some money from
，你确实会从国家那里得到一些钱
from the state, but you know, if you got
，但是你知道，如果你有
a shop and there's no one there to to
一家商店，却没有人来
open it, then you know, you're not going
开店，那么你知道，你不会
to do very well. So, you have a lot of
做得很好。 所以，你非常
fatigue. You've got a lot of anxiety as
疲劳。 您
well about the hostages and about what's
也对人质以及
happening to them. And I think Israeli
他们遭遇的情况感到非常焦虑。 我认为以色列
society has been pretty stuck for a
社会现在已经陷入困境一段
while now. About 60% of the population,
时间了。 大约 60% 的人口，民意
the polling has been pretty consistent.
调查结果相当一致。
Want this war wound up. They want a deal
希望这场战争结束。 他们希望
done to finish the war and bring the
达成协议来结束战争并让
hostages back. And we're seeing that now
人质回来。 我们现在看到这种趋势正在
ramp up. Uh so we had a a very big
加剧。 嗯，所以我们上周末在特拉维夫举行了一场非常大规模的
protest in Tel Aviv last weekend on
抗议活动
Sunday. 200,000 maybe 300,000 people out
。 有 20 万甚至 30 万人
there calling for an end of the war. I
呼吁结束战争。 我
think the interesting thing recent in
认为最近几周有趣的事情
recent weeks is that part of that
是，
protest is now not just let's get the
抗议活动的一部分现在不仅仅是让我们
hostages back and and finish this war
救回人质并结束这场战争，
because we're tired of it. It's also
因为我们已经厌倦了。 我们也应该
let's just stop the war because it's
停止战争，因为战争已经
getting too much too many people are
变得太严重，有太多的人
dying. It's not great for Israel. It's
死去。 这对以色列来说不是什么好事。 这
not great for the future.
对于未来来说并不好。
>> Yeah. And it's a very divided society
是的。 这是一个非常分裂的社会，
and the hostage families have
consistently been protesting every
Saturday since almost two years now. but
近两年来，人质家属每周六都会举行抗议。 但也有
they've been joined by many others and
许多人加入了他们的行列，其中包括
families of some of soldiers who've died
一些阵亡士兵的家属，
and also those who you know don't want
以及那些不希望
their sons and daughters called up again
自己的儿女
for the third or fourth time. So I think
第三次或第四次被征召入伍的人。 所以我认为
we're seeing a bigger protest. But I
我们将看到更大规模的抗议。 但我
think people realize now that from the
认为人们现在意识到，从一
start the hostages were the key thing
开始，人质对于
for for most of the population. You
大多数人来说都是至关重要的。
release the hostages, wind up the war.
释放人质，结束战争。
But now the fear is that if this action
但现在令人担心的是，如果这一行动
goes ahead in Gaza City and in other
在加沙城和
parts of Gaza with the army cracking
加沙其他地区继续进行，如果军队
down even more so-called destroying
进一步镇压，所谓的摧毁
Hamas that it's the hostages who who are
哈马斯，那么
really in the front line because they
真正处于前线的是人质，因为据
are believed potentially to be either in
信他们可能在
the north or the middle of Gaza. And
加沙北部或中部。
these are areas which the Israelis
这些是以色列
forces the battalions will move into. So
军队将要进入的地区。 因此，
the hostage families have reached the
人质家属的情况确实已经到了这种
point really and and obviously we've
地步，而且我们显然已经
seen videos and pictures coming out
看到了
recently of the emaciated state of the
最近
Israeli hostages which have been
released by Hamas and Islamic Jihad
哈马斯和伊斯兰圣战组织发布的视频和图片，
these videos. So there is a real sort of
这些视频和图片显示了以色列人质的憔悴状态。 因此，人们确实
sense that time is running out for the
感觉到人质的时间不多了，
hostages as and this has has you know
这
provoked even more protest and division
within Israeli society. And Joe, I was
在以色列社会引发了更多的抗议和分裂。 乔，
really intrigued when you were saying on
你之前在广播中谈到这
the radio earlier on, something I hadn't
件事
really thought about in all of this, the
effect on the Israeli economy.
对以色列经济的影响时，我真的很好奇，这是我以前从未想过的。
>> Yeah, absolutely. Look, we we had some
是的，绝对如此。 你看，本周我们得到了一些
some very stark figures this week. The
非常严峻的数据。
last quarter GDP figures, that's the
上个季度的 GDP 数据，也就是
sort of national wealth figures, uh, had
国民财富数据，
dropped by three and a half%. I mean,
下降了 3.5%。 我的意思是，
last year the economy in Israel grew by
去年以色列的经济增长了
about 1%, but that was largely due to
约 1%，但这主要是由于
the amount of money the government was
政府
spending on the military. And this year
在军事上的花费。 今年
we're trying to starting to see that
我们试图开始看到这种趋势有所
unwind and it shrunk by three and a
缓解，
half% last quarter. And uh just this
上个季度它缩减了 3.5%。 就在本周，
week the government announced cuts
政府宣布
across the board. Every single
全面削减开支。 每个
government department is going to have
政府部门的预算都必须
to take a 3 and a half% cut uh in its
削减 3.5%，
budget and that's o over and above cuts
这比
that we've already seen uh this year. So
我们今年已经看到的削减幅度还要高。 所以，
so things are are really quite painful
for a lot of people and they're starting
对于很多人来说，情况确实相当痛苦，他们开始
to feel the pinch. And Jane, I know
感受到压力。 简，我知道
you've got to go shortly to go and work
你很快就要去
on your your big film you're doing about
拍摄一部关于英美两国
the special relationship, the diplomatic
特殊关系、外交
relationship between the UK and the US.
关系的大片了。
What are some things about the big
international activity around this
conflict that that we should be thinking
我们应该考虑围绕这场冲突的重大国际活动有哪些方面
about?
>> Well, obviously the the key thing is the
显然，关键是
continuing American support for for
美国继续支持
Benjamin Netanyahu. I think people have
本杰明内塔尼亚胡。 我认为人们
tried to second guess whether at what
试图猜测
point Trump would perhaps speak out
特朗普何时会公开
against what the Israeli government
反对以色列政府的
would would were doing or at least try
所作所为，或者至少尝试
to to intervene in some way. and he he
以某种方式进行干预。
was visibly moved when he was here a
几周前，当他来到这里时，看到加沙饥饿儿童的照片，他明显被触动了，
couple of weeks ago by the pictures of
starving children in Gaza and we did see
我们确实看到了一些
beginning of a you know perhaps this is
迹象，你知道，这也许
going to change the American attitude
会改变美国的态度，
but we haven't really seen much since
但从那以后我们并没有看到太多变化，
then and of course Ukraine is now
当然，乌克兰问题现在
filling the headlines and filling the
占据了头条新闻，占据了
time for for Trump and Rubio uh on that
特朗普和卢比奥等
sort of side of things. So um you know
政治人物的注意力。 所以，你知道，在
internationally um in this country and
国际上，在这个国家和
in others we've obviously seen the um
其他国家，我们显然看到以色列
promise to recognize a Palestinian state
承诺
in September at the UN unless Israel
在 9 月在联合国承认巴勒斯坦国，除非以色列
fulfills certain conditions. So you know
满足某些条件。 所以
I think everybody's very engaged in
我认为每个人都非常投入
this. But it doesn't seem like any of
于此。 但这一切似乎都不
this is a going to make the Israeli
会让以色列
government feel any differently about
政府对
this forthcoming Gaza incursion. and the
即将到来的加沙入侵产生任何不同的看法。
UN Secretary General has spoken out
联合国秘书长
against it as well in the last day, but
也在昨天对此表示反对，但
it doesn't seem to have moved the dial
似乎并未起到
at all.
任何作用。
>> And Joe, from where you're sitting, are
乔，从你的角度来看，
there any other things other countries
其他国家还可以做其他什么事情吗？
could do, buttons that they could push
他们可以按下哪些按钮
that would affect any kind of change in
来影响以色列的任何变化
Israel?
？ 你
>> Look, the the key country is the United
看，关键国家是
States, and I think that's that's the
美国，我认为这是
only country that matters at the moment.
目前唯一重要的国家。
Uh Israel is feeling politically uh
嗯，以色列在政治上感到
quite belleaguered and under siege. uh
相当困难和被围困。 呃，
it's taken against uh the promise as as
正如 Jan 指出的那样，这是违背
Jan's pointed out of some countries to
一些国家
recognize a Palestinian state and it's
承认巴勒斯坦国的承诺的，而且它
promised to retaliate against that and
承诺会对此进行报复，
we'll see what happens next month. But
我们将看看下个月会发生什么。 但
currently
目前，
uh a lot of people are looking to the
很多人都希望
White House to be the key factor here
白宫成为
that pushes the Israeli prime minister
推动以色列总理
into some kind of negotiation. So as as
进行某种谈判的关键因素。 正如
we've said before, there is a deal on
我们之前所说，目前正在达成一项协议
the table at the moment. We don't know
。 我们不知道
what's in it, but we're told it's very,
其中的具体内容，但据我们所知，该协议与几周前
very similar to the one Israel agreed to
以色列同意
just a few weeks ago and Hamas didn't.
而哈马斯未同意的协议非常非常相似。
And now Hamas have been pushed quite
现在，
hard by the Egyptians and the Qataris
埃及和卡塔尔对哈马斯施加了很大压力，
into saying, "No, come on, you've got to
迫使他们说：“不，得了吧，你们必须
do a deal. There's there's so much
达成协议。那里有太多的
suffering. You got to end this war." And
苦难。你们必须结束这场战争。”
in the meantime, Israel have said, "You
与此同时，以色列却说：“你
know what? We we're not interested in
知道吗？我们对
these partial deals. We don't want half
这些部分协议不感兴趣。我们不想让一半
of our hostages back. We want them all
的人质回来。我们希望他们全部
back. And we want amassed disarmed. We
回来。我们希望解除武装。我们
want security control over over Gaza.
希望加沙地带的安全控制权，
and we want someone else in charge that
我们希望由
isn't Hamas or or frankly the
哈马斯或
Palestinian Authority. So that that
巴勒斯坦权力机构以外的人来掌权。” 讽刺的是，
ironically the the sort of big
comprehensive deal is what the rest of
the world has been trying to to get
世界其他国家一直试图让
Israel to agree to and it hasn't. So now
以色列同意这种全面的大协议，但以色列没有同意。所以现在摆
there's a partial deal on the table. It
在桌面上的只是一项部分协议。在任何停火开始时，它
would get sort of 10 live hostages out
都能让大约10名人质活着出来
pretty well at the start of any
ceasefire.
I think the concern in in in the Israeli
我认为以色列
government is that that would just give
政府担心的是，这只会给
Hamas chance to regroup.
哈马斯重组的机会。
But at the same time that the problem is
但与此同时，问题在于，
that the Israeli government in
以色列政府，
particular Benjamin Netanyahu doesn't
尤其是本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，不想在
want to publicly or otherwise negotiate
a day after plan. Who's going to run
计划出台后公开或以其他方式进行谈判。谁来管理
Gaza? How do you replace Hamas? And all
加沙？如何取代哈马斯？
we're getting at the moment is slogans
目前我们听到的只是
about defeating Hamas. But you can't
关于……的口号。 击败哈马斯。但
really just carry on a war indefinitely
战争不可能无限期地持续下去，
until the last person gives up their
直到最后一个人放弃
weapon because that just doesn't happen.
武器，因为那根本不可能发生。
Well, there's no example of that in
history apart from possibly the Tamil
历史上除了
Tigers in Sri Lanka, but that's not
斯里兰卡的泰米尔猛虎组织之外，没有其他先例，但这
really a useful analogy here because you
在这里并不适用，因为你
need a political solution. So, we're
需要一个政治解决方案。所以，我们
still waiting for the official
仍在等待
government response to this deal that's
政府对这项正在讨论的协议的官方回应
on the table. would end the fighting for
。该协议将停火
60 days, would have a promise of
60天，并承诺
negotiating for the future. You've got
未来继续谈判。
the rest of the region lined up ready to
该地区的其他国家已经准备好
recognize Israel if they haven't done
承认以色列（如果他们还没有这样做的话），准备
already, ready to integrate Israel, but
整合以色列，但
what they want in return is a
他们想要的回报是一个
Palestinian state. And Benjamin
巴勒斯坦国。本杰明·
Netanyahu has spent his entire career
内塔尼亚胡的整个职业生涯都在
fighting against that concept. He thinks
反对这一概念。他认为
it's dangerous for Israel and so he's
这对以色列很危险，所以他
not going to accept it and certainly not
不会接受，当然也不会
going to accept anything that smells of
接受任何有
that. when he's got two key members of
这种意味的东西。当他的政府联盟中有两名关键成员
his government coalition who will pull
愿意
out and bring his government down they
退出并推翻他的政府时，他们
say uh if he concedes that much. So
说，如果他让步 就这么多。所以
we're stuck at the moment. Now that
我们现在陷入了困境。这
doesn't mean Netanyahu is a master
并不意味着内塔尼亚胡是一位
politician. He can thread his way
政治大师。他可以自己想办法
through this. But the thing that people
解决这个问题。但人们
are looking for is a nudge from America.
期待的是美国能给他们点颜色看看。
And as Jane said they are fully focused
正如简所说，他们目前完全专注
at the moment on Ukraine. Maybe when the
于乌克兰问题。也许当
focus turns away from there, they might
焦点从那里转移开来时，他们可能会
have a look at what's going on here and
看看这里的情况，
and push the Israeli government and
并推动以色列政府和
Hamas who are already already there into
已经在那里的哈马斯
a ceasefire. But we just don't know at
停火。但我们现在还不知道
the moment. And in the meantime, in that
。与此同时，在这种
vacuum, people are still getting killed
真空状态中，人们仍在被杀，
and the Israeli military are still
以色列军队仍在为
preparing for what would be a colossal
一场规模庞大的
military operation. and uh with the best
军事行动做准备。即使怀着
will in the world, it's going to cause a
世界上最好的意愿，这也会给那些
huge amount of suffering to people who
are uh hungry at the moment and have
目前正在挨饿、
suffered quite a lot over the last 22
在过去22个月里饱受苦难的人们带来巨大的苦难
months. And by the way, actually that
。顺便说一句，实际上
the Israeli military is signaling that
以色列军方正在发出信号，表明
it's going to be very very difficult. I
这将是非常非常困难的。我
think they're doing that deliberately to
认为他们是故意这样做的，
to make this quite a big step should uh
为了让这成为一项重大的举措，本杰明应该这么
Benjamin say go for it. and you know
说。 放马过来吧。你知道，
they're talking about at least a hundred
他们说自己这边至少有一百人
casualties
伤亡
on their own side. I think they're
。我认为他们
trying to make it as unpalatable as
possible while still doing their duty
一边在履行职责
and planning for it. And as we're seeing
和计划的同时，也在竭力营造一种令人难以接受的氛围。正如我们目前所看到的
at the moment, they're actually fighting
，他们实际上是在试图
to say this is the start of the process.
宣称这是进程的开始。
>> And Jane, in terms of the international
简，就国际社会的
reaction, there's a statement from lots
反应而言，今天
of foreign ministers, including the UK
包括英国在内的许多国家的外交部长都发表了
today about the situation in Gaza. But
关于加沙局势的声明。但
just before we started recording this
就在我们开始录制这
episode, there was another statement
期节目之前，
from lots of foreign ministers about
许多国家的外交部长也发表了关于
another issue and it's Israeli
另一个问题的声明，那就是以色列
settlements in East Jerusalem and that
在东耶路撒冷的定居点问题
has an impact on Yeah. recognizing a
。这个问题会影响到承认
Palestinian state, whether you could
巴勒斯坦国，以及
ever have a Palestinian state in
从地理角度来看，巴勒斯坦国是否真的存在
geographical terms.
>> Yeah. Because the other big news in the
是的。因为
last week or so from from Israel is the
过去一周左右，以色列的另一个重大新闻是，
um decision to develop a massive
他们决定
settlement on a piece of land which is
在一块名为E1的土地上建造一个大型定居点
called E1. It's been there. that's been
。这块土地已经在那里，已经
earmarked for for many years, which
预留了很多年了，这
would effectively not only cut the West
不仅会有效地切断约旦河
Bank, the Palestinian West Bank off from
西岸（巴勒斯坦的约旦河西岸）与东
East Jerusalem, the Palestinian area of
耶路撒冷（巴勒斯坦的耶路撒冷地区）的联系
Jerusalem, but would also cut the north
， 还会把
and the south west bank in two. So, that
西岸的南北一分为二。所以，这
is very much the the child, as it were,
完全是乔提到的
of uh one of the right-wing ministers
某个右翼部长
that um Joe has referred to, Belazil
贝拉齐尔·
Smotric. He's got his way. Uh the
斯莫特里克的主意。他得逞了。
government has now said this will go
政府现在表示将继续
ahead. We will build settlements. There
推进。我们将建造定居点。
are 3,700 Palestinians living in that
那片土地上生活着3700名巴勒斯坦人，面积
patch of land. It's about 12 square
大约12
kilometers. So that's going to make a
平方公里。这将带来
massive difference. So yes, how can
巨大的变化。所以，是的，
there be any any state when you you not
如果
only have Gaza that's not contiguous
加沙不仅与
with the West Bank, you now have Gaza
西岸不相连，而且现在加沙还与
and two bits of the West Bank. So I
西岸的两部分相连，怎么可能形成一个国家呢？所以我
think it's not looking optimistic at
认为情况不容乐观
all. And many people believe that the
。许多人认为，
two-state solution is just not going to
两国方案根本不可能
happen for for for practical reasons as
实现，既有实际原因，
well as political ones. And Joe, I don't
也有政治原因。乔，我不想把
want to make it about us as an
话题转到我们这个
organization, but it is interesting to
组织身上，但很高兴
have you as as as the bureau chief on
你能作为新闻社社长来主持节目
newscast. I mean, I just wonder what
。我的意思是，我只是想知道，你能
tell us about some of the challenges you
告诉我们一些关于…… 你们
guys have faced over the last couple of
过去几年面临的挑战
years. I mean, everyone is aware that
。我的意思是，大家都知道，
there's no independent outside
没有任何独立的外部
journalists allowed into Gaza. That's a
记者获准进入加沙。这
huge challenge for for telling the story
对于清晰公正地报道当地情况是一个巨大的挑战
in a in a in a clear and fair way. Um,
。嗯，
but I'm sure there's lots of other ones
但我相信还有很多其他挑战
as well.
>> Yeah. Well, I mean, the first thing is
是的。首先，
this is the the the longest conflict I I
这是我
can recall ever being locked out of. And
记忆中被拒之门外的最长的冲突。我
I think it would have made a a big
认为如果我们
difference for us uh to be in there
能持续在那里
reporting continuously, but I I don't
报道，情况会大有不同，但我
also don't want to give the impression
也不想给人留下
that we don't know what's going on.
我们不知道发生了什么的印象。
>> You know, we we had uh for quite a long
你知道，在战争
time our own staff inside for the first
初期，我们自己的工作人员在里面待了很长一段时间，
part of the war and then we managed to
后来我们设法把
evacuate them. Uh and since then we have
他们疏散了。从那时起，我们就有
a team of very very dedicated trusted
一支非常敬业、值得信赖的
freelancers who every day are going out
自由撰稿人团队，他们每天都出去
um filming and interviewing people and
拍摄、采访，
telling us what's going on. We also have
告诉我们当地的情况。我们还有
a sort of a a vast network of people
一个庞大的人脉网络，
we're we're calling every day. So, it's
我们随时可以联系…… 每天。所以，
not as if we don't know what's going on,
我们并非不知道发生了什么，
but I think the impact o of it would
但我认为，
have been greater uh if you know the the
如果你知道那些你每天
people that you you see on your TV
在电视屏幕上看到、
screens and hear on your radio every day
在收音机里听到的人，
uh would have been there throughout the
他们在整个
conflict. I don't think if international
冲突期间都在现场，那么它的影响会更大。坦白说，如果国际
media had been there, it would have
媒体在场，我认为冲突不会
lasted this long, frankly. I mean, I
持续这么久。我的意思是，我
don't want to to give us
不想
>> over inflate our our impact, but I think
过分夸大我们的影响，但我认为
that's, you know, that's one of the
这也是
reasons why we've been blocked from
我们被阻止
going in. but you know talking about
进入的原因之一。但你知道，谈论他们面临的
their challenges those guys and and we
挑战，那些人，
don't name them for their own safety
为了他们的安全，我们不会透露他们的名字，他们
uh working so hard but you know it's
工作非常努力，但你知道，
heartbreaking in the last month or so
在过去一个月左右的时间里，这令人心碎，
you know they're just telling us some
你知道，他们只是告诉我们，有些
days
日子
they've been so hungry that they can't
他们饿得无法
work and that's you know that's awful
工作，你知道，这很糟糕，
that that you know they're saying I've
你知道，你知道，我
just too dizzy I'm too faint because we
头晕目眩，虚弱无力，因为我们还
haven't had enough uh food you know and
没有吃饱。 呃，食物，你知道，
a couple of them have ended up, you
他们中的一些人最终
know, uh, getting medical treatment and
接受了治疗，
and they're just getting rehydrated, but
他们只是在补充水分，但
there isn't access to to enough food.
仍然无法获得足够的食物。
There hasn't been it's starting to get a
little bit better now, but that's, you
现在情况开始有所好转，但这对他们
know, that's a terrible thing for for
来说是一件可怕的事情，也
them to to go through and it gives you a
让你感受到
measure of um of how scarce food have
食物是多么的匮乏
got. And at the same time, you know, you
。与此同时，你知道，
you've got a very concerted effort by
Benjamin Neti to say that we're making
本杰明·内蒂（Benjamin Neti）竭力否认
this all up. Uh that that the famine in
这一切都是我们编造的。
Gaza is a lie. Uh and I mean he stood up
加沙饥荒是一个谎言。呃，我的意思是，他
last week at a press conference and said
上周在新闻发布会上站起来说，
Israel has never restricted food into
以色列从未限制向
Gaza, which is a flatout
加沙运送食物，这完全是谎言
>> untruth.
>> Um because it it closed the borders back
嗯，因为它早
in March. So you know, that's one of the
在三月份就关闭了边境。所以你知道，这是
big big challenges. is I, you know, it's
最大的挑战之一。
also this is a hugely divisive
这也是一场极具分裂性的
conflict because it's part of a a a
冲突，因为它是一场
culture war that actually has nothing to
文化战争的一部分，而这场战争实际上已经……
do
uh with the Middle East a lot of the
很多时候，这跟中东无关
time, but people use where where others
，但人们会用别人
stand on this conflict as a as a filter.
在这场冲突中的立场来过滤信息。
Are you on my side or not? And I think
你站在我这边吗？我认为
that makes it even more visceral. It
这会让人更加敏感。它
makes the emotions
会让情绪更加
uh harder and higher and it makes people
强烈，也更难控制，也
less likely to listen to things that
更难听取
they don't like.
他们不喜欢的言论。
>> And that I think for journalists is
我认为这对记者来说很
tough because
艰难，因为
um it means that you know people turn
这意味着你知道，人们会
against you quite a lot
经常反对你，
>> but that doesn't mean we we you know we
但这并不意味着我们
should stop doing our job.
应该停止工作。
>> Well Joe thank you very much for your
乔，非常感谢你
time today.
今天抽出时间。
>> Very welcome. And Jane, I was going to
非常欢迎。简，我本来
ask you a big question about putting
想问你一个重要的问题，关于如何将这
this in the historical context, but
件事放在历史背景下讨论，但
actually people can go back and listen
实际上，人们可以回顾
to old newscasts and actually, as I said
过去的新闻广播，正如我在
at the start of this episode, those
本期节目一开始所说，
building blocks in in the early 90s and
90年代初的那些基石，以及
the hope that there was then versus the
当时的希望与
the misery that there is now. That that
现在的苦难之间的对比。这些
kind of that tells the story, doesn't
就说明了问题，不是吗
it?
>> Yeah. And I mean, the real problem, as
是的。我的意思是，正如
Joe outlined, is that the Israelis
乔所概述的，真正的问题是以色列人
Netanyahu won't say what happens the day
内塔尼亚胡不愿透露第二天会发生什么
after. There's no plan for what happens
。对于加沙地带的局势，目前还没有计划
in Gaza. and the Palestinian Authority
。巴勒斯坦权力机构，也
who now the government on the West Bank
就是现在的西岸政府，也
have been ruled out. So h how can you
已经被排除在外了。所以，如果
create the possibility of a Palestinian
state when Israel will not talk about
以色列不愿谈论
what sort of government it will allow
它允许什么样的政府，让以色列
where security stops overarching
不再提供全面安全
security from Israel and where
保障，让巴勒斯坦人
Palestinian self-determination starts.
开始自决，那么，巴勒斯坦国的建立又如何可能呢？
So I think that's what I find so
所以，我认为这才是让我感到如此
difficult that all the hopes that there
困难的原因。
were in Oslo and succeeding years it was
奥斯陆协议以及随后几年的所有希望，虽然时好时
up and down but there was always hope. I
坏，但始终存在着希望。现在我
find it very difficult to know where
很难知道
that hope is now because we don't know
这个希望在哪里，因为我们不知道
how these various bits that are
这些巴勒斯坦的各部分如何
Palestine in waiting if you like how
they could be put together, how they
整合，如何
could be governed, let alone how we can
治理，更不用说我们如何
come out of the terrible situation that
civilians are in, the starvation, the
平民所处的可怕境地，包括饥荒、
the mass killings, etc. I I think it's
大屠杀等等。我认为这
it's very difficult and I have to say
非常困难，我不得不说
I'm not very optimistic.
我并不十分乐观。
>> Well, it's been nice to catch up with
不过，很高兴能和
you nonetheless. Thank you very Well,
你见面。非常感谢。
thank you for the opportunity. I'm sorry
谢谢你给我这个机会。抱歉，我
to perhaps be rather down at this point.
现在可能有点失落。